We need your help

The Prime Minister has passed the ball to Tony Burke, Minister for Agriculture, who sounds like a reasonable man. The Coalition needs to get his ear because soil carbon sceptics are often called Professor or Dr and politicians often assume 'science' is objective.

The Minister needs to hear the following alternative view:

The trading in soil carbon can only be conducted if a system of measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) can be agreed between the parties to the trade (and regulators).

A purely scientific solution is not likely to be found because of the unique properties of soil carbon and its dynamic interface with the atmosphere. Finer and finer levels of measurement take us further away from the solution. The soil and vegetation ‘breathe’ carbon in and out and this ‘flux’ makes conventional measurement impossible. Spacial variation is also significant. The possibility of trade therefore rests on the willingness of the parties to accept a system of practical estimations within certain statistical tolerances (that accord with uncertainty levels already accepted under IPCC protocols).

Science alone cannot provide the answer…

The question the Minister should be asking is this: “Why, after more than 12 years research, have the best scientists, working in the soil carbon field all over the world, not yet delivered a cost-effective and practical measurement, monitoring and verification (MMV) system to enable trade in soil carbon to proceed when it took only 8 years to put a man on the moon?” It is plain that the solution does not lie in more scientific research to develop more “accurate” measurement techniques.

The answer lies in gaining agreement between parties to the trading scheme that they can be confident they can transact and achieve their goals. Science cannot be a proxy for the decision because science, from 1995 to date, has only discovered reasons why the trade cannot proceed, based on increasing degrees of exactitude. Always the response is: “More research is needed.” (The 10 years Sir Nicholas Stern gave the world in which to act to avoid climate crisis 2 years go will have passed before the extraordinary sequestration capacity of soils can be deployed.) The world’s leading soil carbon scientists are appealing to their colleagues to abandon the purist approach and contribute to a practical solution. (Professor R. Lal (IPCC), Dr John Kimble, ex-USDA)

Because it is asking the wrong question…
Policy makers have ‘framed’ the question the wrong way. The question should not be: “How can we measure soil carbon with exactitude that matches other forms of carbon sinks or offsets?” The question should be: “How can we construct a measurement system that will satisfy buyers of offsets and make the trade in soil carbon possible?”

A customer-driven solution
Therefore the preferred methodology is to engage buyers, traders and regulators in discussion of MMV issues and enlist their help to develop a workable system. References will be made to analogous uncertainties in other categories of abatement and GHG offset. The engagement strategy includes interviews and workshops with carbon traders, commodity market experts, statisticians, buyers, regulators, and growers. Scientists will be involved where they understand that the objective of the exercise is not precision but practical solutions.
By revealing to the stakeholders the elements of systems for assessing soil C levels and their uncertainty levels, as well as the potential for using combinations of techniques, the stakeholders can gain an understanding and give considered opinions about degrees of confidence.