It is plain to anyone involved in the field for more than a few months that the solution to measuring and trading soil carbon does not lie in more scientific research to develop more “accurate” measurement techniques. The answer lies in gaining agreement between parties to the trading scheme that they can be confident they can transact and achieve their goals. Science cannot be a proxy for the decision because science, from 1995 to date, has only discovered reasons why the trade cannot proceed, based on increasing degrees of exactitude. Always the response is: “More research is needed.”
Dr Peter Grace from Queensland University of Technology represents the anti-trading faction among scientists. He greeted the PM’s statement with the conventional phrases such as “expensive” and ‘difficult’ and the inevitable bottomline: ‘more research is needed’. (Cynics could say there is a gravy-train mentality surrounding soil carbon. This is certainly the case in NZ where the "Crown Research Agencies" line up for handouts and the Government's response to climate change in agriculture is to create professorships - 2 in the case of biochar.)
The Carbon Coalition has been in discussions with enlightened soil scientists for more than 12 months to solve these problems. The world’s first Carbon Farming Conference in November was a watershed for soil carbon science. It brought scientists and farmers together to solve problems. We believe that some scientists may have changed their focus from accuracy of measurement to practical solutions for trading. If so, they know where the Moon is.
The trading in soil carbon can only be conducted if a system of measurement, monitoring, and verification (MMV) can be agreed between the parties to the trade (and regulators). A purely scientific solution is not likely to be found because of the unique properties of soil carbon and ts porous interface with the atmosphere. Finer and finer levels of measurement take us further away from the solution. The soil and vegetation ‘breathe’ carbon in and out and this ‘flux’ makes conventional measurement impossible. Spacial variation is also significant. The possibility of trade therefore rests on the willingness of the parties to accept a system of practical estimations within certain statistical tolerances (that accord with uncertainty levels already accepted under IPCC protocols). Australia could lead the world by devising and championing a commonsense regime that will enable the deployment of the power of soil to cure the carbon imbalance that afflicts the world.
Re the constant call for "more research" from the scientific community: We can't wait for the results of more 3 year trials. The 10 years Sir Nicholas Stern gave the world in which to act to avoid climate crisis 2 years go will have passed before the extraordinary sequestration capacity of soils can be deployed. The world’s leading soil carbon scientists are appealing to their colleagues to abandon the purist approach and contribute to a practical solution. (See comments of Professor R. Lal (IPCC), Dr John Kimble, ex-USDA below)
Preferred methodology: Therefore the preferred methodology is to engage buyers, traders and regulators in discussion of MMV issues and enlist their help to develop a workable system. References will be made to analogous uncertainties in other categories of abatement and GHG offset. The engagement strategy includes interviews and workshops with carbon traders, commodity market experts, statisticians, buyers, regulators, and growers. Scientists will be involved where they understand that the objective of the exercise is not precision but practical solutions.
By revealing to the stakeholders the elements of systems for assessing soil C levels and their uncertainty levels, as well as the potential for using combinations of techniques, the stakeholders can gain an understanding and give considered opinions about degrees of confidence.
Leading Scientists Call For Common Sense
Leading US scientists are questioning the importance of ‘flux’ and demanding that soil scientists come into the real world and find solutions:
• Dr John Kimble: "It is often pointed out that soils have a large
amount of variability, but with knowledge of soil sciences and
landscapes, variability can be described and sampling protocols
can be developed to deal with this," writes Dr John Kimble.29 "One
reason I feel people say that soils vary and SOC cannot be
measured is that we soil scientists focus on showing variability, not
on showing what we know about the variability.” "We too often focus on this [variability], worry about laboratory precision and field variation and do not look at the real world where most things are based on averages and estimated data. We tend to focus on finding variation and not on using our
knowledge of soil science to describe what we know. All systems
vary, but in soils we focus on a level of precision and accuracy that
may not have any relevance to the real world because we can take
so many samples and look at the variation." (Kimble, J., "Advances In Models To Measure Soil Carbon: Can Soil
Carbon Really Be Measured?", in Lal, R., Cerri, C., Bernoux, M.,
Etchevers, J., and Cerri, E., eds., Carbon Sequestration in Soils in Latin
America, Food Products Press, Birmingham, NY, 2006)
• Dr Rattan Lal: “Coming events are casting their shadow in this important and emerging field of immense significance to soil science, and the researchers must put their act together before the train departs the station…., While techniques of measuring concentration of C in soils, methodologically sampled and carefully prepared for laboratory analysis, are well known, the principal challenge to soil scientists lies in: (i) upscaling the point data to landscape, farm, watershed or a region … (ii) evaluating changes in soil C with reference to a baseline for cultivated land unit comprising a large farming community, and (iii) verifying that the C thus sequestered is permanent … Soil and tillage researchers must be pro-active in this important theme.” (Dr Rattan Lal, “Farming Carbon”, Soil & Tillage Research 96 (2007)
Dr Lal is Director, Carbon Management and Sequestration Center, Ohio
State University, Columbus, Ohio; Professor of Soil Science, College of
Food, Agricultural, and Environmental Sciences, School of Natural
Resources, Ohio State University; Liebig Applied Soil Science Award.)
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