The International Energy Agency's annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) says that the major governments’ commitment to a 2°C temperature target would mean coal demand will have to peak by 2020, and by 2035 will have dropped to 2003 levels.
Under a 2°C scenario, coal and oil’s 46% share of global electricity generation would fall to 22% in 2030. The share captured by non-hydro renewables would go from 3% to 20%.
Writing in Climate Spectator, Paul Gilding says the 2°C is widely respected: "It is the line in the sand scientists have drawn and said, if we go past it we face catastrophic system-wide risk. While some scientists argue that number is too high and too risky, none of any consequence argue it is too low. That’s why the governments of China, India, Europe and the USA have all agreed, along with many global corporates, that 2°C is the line we can’t cross."
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